Bold Box Office Predictions: Will Blair Witch Scare Up #1 at The Movies?

boxofficeheader-622x415

Notable Openings This Weekend: Blair Witch, Bridget Jones’ s Baby, Snowden

Oliver Stone and two treequels. We got a lot to get to this weekend. Although, is Blair Witch really a threequel? This feels like one of those “Jurassic World is a sequel to Jurassic Park and we’re not acknowledging the other two movies” type deal. The worst part about this new Blair Witch is now people’s brain cells will automatically connect to thinking about Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2. That’s not good for anybody. We’ll address all the Blair Witch shenanigans, the expectant mother that is Briget Jones, and the already divisive Snowden. Oliver Stone made a movie that critics are split on? Shocker.

cfviombwcaau-ag

Blair Witch isn’t a lock to over take Sully at the box office, but it’s got a good chance. Sully seems to be getting that “we only see two movies a year” crowd. The word of mouth is carrying well. Blair Witch still holds a passionate cult following that should propel it to the top spot though. The whole secrecy reveal under a fake movie seems to have bought it early goodwill, just as 10 Cloverfield Lane did. In fact, that’s probably the type of weekend # you’re looking at: $20-$26 Million. Will that be enough for a #1 finish? Maybe. Reviews are bad, but not among the horror faithful. That’s all that matters.

I never dived into the Bridget Jones phenomenon. The last movie was released twelve years ago. That’s a long time. The sequel, Edge of Reason, came out three years after the original when the series was at its height. Even then it only made just over $8.5 Million opening weekend. Time has probably been good for this series. It won’t do gang busters, but it will make a quick buck. Hey, it worked for My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2.

When I saw the Rotten Tomatoes score for Snowden fall between 50%-60%, I wasn’t shocked at all. The last three features Oliver Stone directed all fell within that range (Savages, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, W.). Oliver Stone makes some people happy. For others, not so much. I can’t wait to see this thing. As far as the box office goes, I wouldn’t expect much. It’s not opening in a ton of theaters (just over 2,400). And even though this is a stacked cast, none of them are box office darlings. Joseph Gordon-Levitt didn’t exactly clean up with The Walk. I’m curious to see how it does next weekend. Who the hell knows what word of mouth will be.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

It will be a tight battle, but Blair Witch should squeak out a victory. With horror kicking ass all year, why wouldn’t this one do well? Sully also has a strong second weekend.

1. Blair Witch – $26 Million

2. Sully – $22 Million

3. Bridget Jones’s Baby – $10.5 Million

4. Snowden – $9 Million

5. When the Bough Breaks – $6.5 Million

Don’t forget to check out our fall movie podcast!

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.