Bold Box Office Predictions: Will Star Trek Beyond Beam Up Big Money?

boxofficeheader-622x415

Notable Openings This Weekend: Star Trek BeyondIce Age: Collision CourseLights Out

Reviews.  The Final Frontier.  These are the voyages of tired film critics.  Their mission.  To weed out typical summer garbage.  Alright, enough.  Yeah, yeah, I’m ripping off Star Trek.  The point I’m trying to make is we’ll be heavily talking about those positive Star Trek reviews.  In a summer filled with horrible Rotten Tomato scores and underperforming “blockbusters,” we are truly going to see how much cache that little red tomato actually has.  Star Trek Beyond has been met with the ultimate apathy, but the response in the last week might just save it.  In addition to Star Trek, we got another low budget horror movie I’m sure will do well.  I’m also going to try and break a record for least amount of words spoken about a film with Ice Age: Collision Course, the fifth film (are you serious?) in the series.  Let’s boldly go where we’ve gone a hundred times before and predict some box office!

trek poster

There’s no doubt when this new Star Trek series started in 2009, it caused a huge rift among Trek fans.  Many loved the new, more action packed take on the series, while others felt it deviated from what the series was all about in the first place: people sitting in chairs not doing anything (Trekkies can tweet me @dcohenwriter).  While the first film was praised to high heavens, Star Trek into Darkness (2013) further alienated the true Trekkers.  They even go as far to say it’s the worst Trek movie (absurd).  This combined with the absolute indifference towards the Star Trek Beyond trailers had many pegging this as a potential summer disappointment.  This may have changed in the last couple weeks though.

There’s a lot of evidence pointing to Rotten Tomatoes having a significant influence on the box office (Transformers aside).  Yes, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice made a crap load of money, but there’s no question a ton of cash was left on the table.  The Rotten Tomato score was below 30%.  I also believe a movie like The Jungle Book would not have done nearly as well without that 90+ score.  These numbers help create a good buzz.  As I write this, Star Trek Beyond currently sits at 85%, and was even hovering above 90% for a while.  In this particular summer, that’s a ridiculously high score.  That’s not the only reason why Star Trek Beyond may over perform.

We’re coming off a weak weekend hold over.  The Secret Life of Pets is dying down, and Ghostbusters didn’t exactly scare up big numbers.  While the opening weekend was fine, word of mouth has been utterly forgettable.  The hoopla is completely gone, leaving a movie that nobody cares about anymore.  I expect a big drop off for Ghostbusters.  Star Trek Beyond essentially has the box office to itself.

Low budget horror movies seem to be the safest bet this summer.  While this certainly won’t have the cache of Purge: Election Year or The Conjuring 2, I expect Lights Out to nearly crack $20 Million.  According to Box Office Mojo, its production budget is $4.9 Million.  Superhero movies consume that like water bottles.

Fifth Ice Age movie.  Won’t hit $30 Million.  Franchise done.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

Star Trek Beyond is going to crack just over $60 Million.  I know that seems low, but in this summer, that’s nothing to sneeze at.  They’ll take it.  It should be a healthy weekend all around.  Ghostbusters sinks like a stone.

1. Star Trek Beyond – $64 Million

2. Ice Age: Collision Course – $29 Million

3. The Secret Life of Pets – $27 Million

4. Ghostbusters – $22 Million

5. Lights Out – $19.5 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.