Bold Box Office Predictions: October 16-19, 2015

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Notable Openings This Weekend: Bridge of Spies, Crimson Peak, Goosebumps

Before we get into predictions, here is the last time someone will ever mention Pan – it flopped.  With that out of the way, we got a plethora of mediocrity opening this weekend.  These movies probably sounded like a good idea at the time, but I don’t think we’ll see anything crack $30 Million.  Maybe everyone should just see The Martian again?  Well, let’s get into it and start with a popular book series – from fifteen years ago.

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I suppose Goosebumps books are still being published, but the popularity of the series was no doubt in the heart of the nineties.  I’m not sure the nostalgia factor is going to carry this into huge box office dollars.  It should do fine, and is probably the odds on favorite for #1 this weekend, but this will come and go.  This is one of those instances where people see the trailer and say, “Oh yeah, Goosebumps was cool.  I should see that.”  Then ten minutes later they forget they saw a trailer.  The concept and trailer play off the people who loved the book series growing up, but those people have lives, children and football.  Their nostalgia isn’t strong enough to get them into a theater to see Goosebumps.  It will do fine, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it underperformed.

Now here’s the part where I criticize really popular directors.  Look, I want to be very clear about this: Steven Spielberg is one of, if not the greatest director who ever lived.  When he leaves our world, the retrospectives will be incredible.  Here are the movies Steven Spielberg has directed since 2005’s Munich: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal SkullThe Adventures of TintinWar HorseLincoln.  That’s a bad mixture of mediocrity and crap.  Yes, I understand War Horse and Lincoln were Best Picture nominees, but I don’t care.  Aside from Daniel Day Lewis’ performance, those films were bland, vanilla, safe and run of the mill.  When I watch the trailer for Bridge of Spies, it looks bland, vanilla, safe and run of the mill.  What happened to the A.I. Artificial Intelligence Spielberg?  What happened to the Minority Report Spielberg?  These were risky, intelligent films that were anything but run of the mill.  It’s almost like people are afraid to say a Spielberg/Hanks film looks boring, but I’m sorry, this looks excruciating.  The Rotten Tomatoes score currently reads 92%, but the average critic rating is 7.9.  That tells me the movie is safe.  Yawn.  Much like Goosebumps it should do fine, but whenever I see this trailer with a crowd it gets no reaction.  Maybe it’s great, I don’t know.  I’m just going by recent history.

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I’ve definitely enjoyed some of Guillermo del Toro’s films, but he’s not for me.  He’s more into the look and concept of a film rather than story and character.  I’ve said it a hundred times, but he’s one of these niche directors like Edgar Wright who has his passionate fan base, but it doesn’t translate to box office dollars.  Crimson Peak is the latest offering that only appeals to his fan base.  I wouldn’t be shocked if this didn’t make the top five.

HOW WILL IT ALL BREAK DOWN…

The Martian has a real chance to three-peat, but I’m guessing the fun nature of Goosebumps should be enough for #1.  There won’t be any earth shattering openings this weekend.

1. Goosebumps — $25 Million

2. The Martian — $24 Million

3. Bridge of Spies — $20 Million

4. Hotel Transylvania 2 — $12 Million

5. Crimson Peak — $11 Million

Daniel Cohen is the hard-boiled Film Editor for the Pop Break. Besides reviews, Daniel writes box office predictions, Gotham reviews and Oscar coverage. He can also be found on the Breakcast. If Daniel was sprayed by Scarecrow's fear toxin, it would be watching Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen on a non-stop loop.